- Hi.
- And welcome
to the Big Debate.
We're coming to you live from San Diego, California,
here at our annual Investment U Conference.
Now for the very first time ever,
we are hosting a debate of this style
and we've invited many people to join us
just for this debate from home.
Why are we doing this?
Because this moment is simply too important.
The markets are a mess right now.
If you're anything like me, there's some uncertainty, right?
There's some concern.
There just seem to be too many things happening at once.
There's the war in Ukraine,
which seems likely to continue
for a prolonged period of time or even escalate.
We have inflation running white hot,
which is affecting all of us with everything we buy.
We have the Fed preparing to aggressively raise rates.
We have supply shortages.
And we have the recent news that GDP declined
for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic.
Now we also have the markets.
The markets have been a seesaw.
Just yesterday, the Dow declined 935 points.
The S&P was blood red.
The NASDAQ dropped by over 4% in a day.
And I think the last time I looked on the year,
the S&Ps down something like 13 1/2%,
which I think is the third worst start in history.
The NASDAQ is down 20%.
So things are clearly trending in the wrong direction.
Now, in addition to that, for everyone who's here today,
in person and at home,
we asked you ahead of this,
what do you think is gonna happen?
And here are the results.
The consensus is that 55% of you believe
the markets are heading down.
25% of you, only 25% of you,
think the markets are heading up, and 20% are unsure.
Now, this actually matches the broader consensus.
There was a recent report that came out
that measured sentiment, broad investor sentiment,
that said about 60% of investors are feeling bearish.
This is the lowest marker since 2009, the beginning of 2009,
right after the Great Recession.
So, you know, all of this is clearly troublesome.
Now, what does this mean for you and your money?
Will the markets stabilize and start to improve?
Or are we headed for a market crash?
That's the question we're here to answer.
Now, we don't have a crystal ball,
but we do have
two incredibly knowledgeable individuals here.
I've known these gentlemen for more than 10 years,
and they have both weathered bear markets
and cashed in on bull runs.
Most of you know Marc Lichtenfeld,
he's the chief income strategist for The Oxford Club.
And honestly, he's been killing this recent volatility.
He has three huge wins.
One of them this past week,
a triple digit win playing the downside of the market.
And then of course we have Bryan Bottarelli,
the head trade tactician for The War Room.
He's got a lot of impressive recent stats as well.
And I'll let him get into the specifics here
in just a minute,
but both of these gentlemen
are incredibly good at what they do.
I have followed their work for a long time now,
and they also completely disagree
about where the markets headed next,
which is why we thought it would be the perfect two
to bring on stage for this debate.
Now, Bryan thinks the market is headed higher.
Marc thinks the market is headed lower.
We're gonna get to the bottom of this, once and for all.
And trust me,
I wanna figure out the answer to this
just as much as you do.
So we'll get the answer here together today.
So let's get started and let's jump into this debate,
which everyone's joining us for.
And let me start with you Marc.
And let me just ask you flat out.
Do you think the market is gonna crash in '22, this year?
And if so, why?
- So, I think the answer is not will the market crash.
Open your eyes. It is crashing.
We're we're in the middle of crashing right now.
Take a look at internet stocks.
These stocks are down 48%.
You've got all kinds of technology indexes
that have been nearly cut in half or down 30%, 40%.
You've got Cathie Wood's ETF,
the ARK ETF has been cut in half just year to date.
So you've got sectors that are
already crashing or have crashed.
And if you look at the S&P 500 here,
now, Nate kind of described the market
as a bit of a seesaw.
You're always gonna to have, in any kind of a fall,
it never goes straight down.
It's not like a waterfall.
There's always gonna be some bounces here,
but you can see the S&P 500 is in a down trend for sure.
And then if you look at the NASDAQ composite,
that's even worse.
That index is just been getting killed.
It's down 24% already from the highs.
And it certainly doesn't not look like
it's gonna recover anytime soon.
So to me, the question will we crash?
It's kind of like,
you're sitting on an airplane and you ask me that,
and I'm saying, look out the window.
We're not at cruising altitude anymore.
We're now down to 20,000 feet
and the nose of the plane is pointing down to the ground.
So, we are in the middle of a crash
and it's not gonna get better anytime soon.
- [Nate] All right.
I think those are pretty good points.
What do you say, Bryan?
- Do I have to like, stand up to make my point
like you did? - Do whatever you want.
Can I just stay seated and? (audience laughing)
- [Marc] Yeah, you do you.
- All right.
It's really not that hard, and it's not that fearful.
Yes, clearly risk assets have been repriced, okay?
But can we go back to that original pie chart guys?
Can we pull that up about, yeah, all right.
So here we have 55% of people thinking
that the market's going to be bearish,
and 20% who are undecided.
And you know what?
That means that they think
that that market's gonna be bearish too.
So, think back for a second,
like never once in the history of Wall Street,
when 75% of the people think something is gonna happen,
that thing actually happens, all right?
We have my dad,
who's been waiting 30 years for the big crash.
And he's missed out on the whole
run up of the market since whoever knows.
So what we have here is,
the point to this slide here,
is that you don't wanna be on the side
that everyone else is on Wall Street,
because whenever somebody expects something to happen,
that does not happen, all right?
So when I see a slide like this,
that an overwhelmingly amount of people
are expecting the market to continue going down
that makes me actually feel good.
That makes me feel like this is a viable event.
And I wanna be part of that 25% bullish.
Now that's just the very tip of the iceberg.
We can dive into this a little bit more
if you're okay with that. - Yeah, please.
- Actually, can I just comment on this part real quick?
- Sure. - So, yeah, it's true that
markets bottom when there's extreme negative sentiment,
that is true.
But that, in and of itself, is not what causes it.
There's a very legendary technician, Walter Deemer,
who says that it ain't when people turn bullish,
I'm sorry.
It ain't when people turn bearish
that stocks stop going down,
it's when they stop selling.
So, I have a question for everyone here,
and everyone watching, for those of you who are bearish,
how many of you have started selling
and how many of you have finished selling?
So- - They can't answer you
when they're live.
- So that's gonna be kind of tricky to do, right?
- Well, not one person in the live audience here
raised their hands, so, so my point is,
yes, sentiment may be extreme.
Everybody could sit here and say, when they're asked,
"Yes, I'm bearish", but people haven't started,
and certainly haven't stopped selling yet.
That's when markets bottom. So we're not close to that.
No matter what those numbers say.
- All right, are you done?
- I'm done, thank you. - Can we go back
to the S&P chart real quick?
Can we pull that up?
All right, so let's think about
what the market has been facing.
And you kind of touched on this a little bit, Nate.
We've had inflation,
which puts fear into the hearts
of every single person on Wall Street.
Inflation is running at 20 year highs, okay?
We've had the Fed
who has been dumping money into this market,
nonstop since COVID.
They have now stopped doing that.
So quantitative easing has now stopped.
It's now transferred to quantitative tightening, right?
At the same time, any one of those two
are enough to drop the market, 20, 30, 40%.
At the same time, you have both of those coming together,
and then there's a war with Ukraine,
which is tremendous amount of uncertainty.
So you have three of the most bearish indicators
all coming into the market at the same time,
and that's the only amount of dip that we can get?
A 7, 14, 13% dip?
In my opinion, the market, to be able to withstand
those three major, major bearish triggers
is to me, incredibly resilient.
And that should mean that this market
is far stronger than what we're giving it credit for.
Now. Yes, sure.
Has there been a crash in '22?
In risk assets there has.
Peloton has gone from 170 down to 20, as it should.
DoorDash shouldn't be a $300 stock.
It's an $80 stock right now, and maybe it will go lower,
but you don't see that sort of crash happening
in the McDonald's of the world or the FedExs the world.
And yes, they have come down a little bit,
but to be able to withstand all of those bearish triggers
and not like, quote unquote, crash more than that,
to me, that's a huge like flex of the market.
- So, that is astounding to me
to say that the S&P 500 being down 13% in April alone,
we're not talking about from the heights,
in April alone the S&P 500 is down 13%.
And we are talking about the giant companies.
We're not talking about risk assets,
speculative penny stocks, tech companies.
We are talking about the largest
500 companies in the United States down 13% in April alone
and that's withstanding all these pressures.
You know,
that's just amazing to me because
we are already seeing the worst single month,
other than the COVID crash,
which was, you know, a Black Swan event,
It's the worst performance in the S&P 500 in decades.
- This is just- - So it is not
resilient at all.
(indistinct) - Hold on.
Let me ask, let just ask a follow up there.
So Marc,
The Oxford Club has been generally bullish for, optimistic,
for as long as you and I have both been here.
So it's rare that I hear you talking this way.
So, are there any other reasons that you feel so, you know,
so pessimistic and when you look at individual investors,
there's a lot of pent up demand or there's an argument,
there's still a lot of pent up demand
to get out after the pandemic, right?
I think we're all here now 'cause we felt that way.
So, do you think that that plays into this at all?
Or do you think that that's just not enough?
- So yeah. That's a great question.
So, as far as the pent up demand?
Yes, there is a lot of pent up demand,
yet we are still seeing stocks fall,
and remember, stocks are forward looking mechanisms.
So they are typically not reacting to the news other than,
you know, again, if there's a Black Swan event,
something completely out of the blue.
Stocks are looking forward six months a year.
So it's why in 2009, when the market did bottom,
you know, remember in the Great Recession, March, 2009,
we were not out of the woods by any stretch.
We were still worried that we were gonna go over the cliff.
It was gonna be financial armageddon.
But the fact that stocks had bounced at that point
indicated that we were not gonna go over the cliff.
So if you look at the S&P 500,
you look at the NASDAQ right now,
yes, we can say everybody wants to travel,
look, you can't find a table in a restaurant,
all those things are true,
but the market is signaling that there are not gonna be
great times ahead in the immediate future.
I also wanna touch on something that you mentioned about
that The Oxford Club is typically optimistic.
So, I wanna be very clear, long term, I am still a bull.
Markets go up over the long term,
we know that, they always have.
- Hedge language. - So for your
- Here we go. - For your long term money
you don't wanna change anything,
but if we're talking about the next six months to a year,
it looks very, very bad.
One last statistic I'll talk about,
I think you mentioned inflation and interest rates.
Since 1950, when the 10 year bond has gone up over 3%,
we've had 10 bear markets when it's been below 3%.
It's, there's been one bear market.
And so we are very, very close to 3% right now.
And so that just reinforces the fact that
not only are we already in a bear market,
but it will likely get worse.
- All right, so let me get back the point I was gonna make,
you kind of mentioned,
there are stocks that are down 13%, like major stocks.
So JP Morgan for example,
is down 16% year to date, all right?
You are saying, "That scares me."
I'm saying that's a tremendous opportunity
to buy one of the best financial companies in the world
at a 16% discount versus, you know, a Goldman Sachs,
which is down 10% year to date.
So you have this 6% skew in Goldman versus JP Morgan
And yes, they are different companies.
However, buying JP Morgan at a 16% discount
for me is an opportunity.
And a lot of these other companies are an opportunity.
And there's one reason why. Why is that an opportunity?
Well, it comes down to one simple fact,
and I think this is like something that everyone
both here at home is going to like resonate with.
So let's pull up the US housing market price,
home appreciation chart, okay?
When you have the average sale price of homes in the US
rising at this rate, is it unsustainable?
Of course.
However, a home is the most valuable asset that every,
the majority, most Americans,
their single most valuable asset is their home.
And when you have homes values like this going up
I don't think you're going to see a market crash.
You guys listening at home and here,
like, how many stories have you had
where there's a friend of yours or a cousin or a brother
who puts their house on the market,
and then they have three offers.
The next day, two of 'em like above asking.
No contingency, like just straight cash.
Like everybody has that story.
Live streamers at home.
Everyone is nodding their head. They get that right.
So as long as home values are at this level,
or even if they dip a little bit in plateau,
the underlying strength of the market is not going to crash.
- Wait, wait, wait, wait. - So, let me just rebut here.
So first of all,
we are starting to see not necessarily prices,
I don't believe, but new home sales,
existing home sales, are starting to turn the corner.
They're starting to roll over.
But as far as the average sale price,
I mean, just look at that chart.
We all remember what happened in 2006.
Housing prices were going through the roof.
Same thing. Everybody was getting multiple offers.
And what happened to the stock market in 2007?
So just the fact that average home prices
have skyrocketed means nothing.
Actually, if anything, it makes my argument that,
at least according to the recent past,
that the market's gonna tank. - How?
- So, Bryan, let me ask you this,
'cause I'm glad you mentioned that we all have a story.
A good friend of mine just sold his house.
He had 218 people show up for the open house
and the house sold for, there were 17 offers,
and it sold for a 30% premium.
Now, interest rates have already gone up to 5%.
So, are you saying that you don't see this
some cracks starting this show?
- Sure!
- Of course, I mean, clearly that's unsustainable, right?
But like, look,
what happened when Marc is describing
in the 2006, 2007, yeah it came down.
2010 plateaued, and then from 2010 to 2020
blasted back up again.
So even if we have this plateau/dip moment,
that dip is viable,
which is basically the same argument I'm saying
with the stock market right now.
These dips are opportunities.
And in preparation for this,
like the eight seconds of preparation that I did do,
if you go to Yahoo (audience laughing)
and you type in like the Dow chart, right?
You could you click on the maximum Dow chart, right?
In S&P, NASDAQ, Dow, there's a thing that says the max,
you pull up a max chart.
You look at every single time in the max chart
from like the entire history when there was a dip.
Was that a viable moment? Yes, it was.
Was this a dip? A viable moment?
Yes, it was.
It's the single greatest trade in the history of the world.
When you look at a max Dow chart
and look at every dip of between 10, 15, 20%,
and ask yourself, was that viable?
It's viable every single time. - Are you saying we're here,
we're there, one of those dips now?
- We're experiencing one of those dips right now.
- So, was that 10, 15% dip viable in 2000, in 2008?
Or would you have been better off
waiting for things to actually bottom?
- In 2000 and 2008? The two?
Yes. Sure.
- So, even though the NASDAQ was down 60%, at one point,
the S&P was cut in half,
you're saying you should have bought at down 10 or 15%?
- If you, yeah.
- Okay.
- So, Bryan- - I don't know
what to say about that.
I would prefer to wait until we see things bottom
and buy it a lot cheaper, but that's just me.
(audience laughing) - All right.
So given that the majority of people viewing this
are feeling bearish,
I just wanna press you a little bit harder once more.
So everything you said,
I think we could all agree that stock at 16% discount
is an attractive opportunity
and there are a lot of conditions,
but right now there are all these other headwinds
that have yet to play out.
And so what gives you the confidence
that those aren't gonna drag the market further down?
- What are the headwinds? - The things that we've
talked about inflation and Fed,
Fed raising rates. - We already covered that.
The market is a six month, forward looking vehicle.
- [Nate] So you're saying
it's all price? - All of those, well, okay.
Well, in some ways, yes.
But think about how the Fed does this
and think about what we've seen,
and you know, this better, come on, right?
Like, the Fed's gonna come out and say,
Goldman Sachs says- - I wanna hear you say it.
- Goldman Sachs says we might have
seven to eight rate increases this year
and the Fed might increase by 75 basis points.
That freaks everyone out, right?
"75 basis points. Oh my God, we haven't seen a co."
So then what happens is when they actually come out
and only raised by 50 basis points or 25,
that's actually now better than expected.
So instead of freaking out over a 50 basis point rise,
well, it wasn't 75, the market's gonna then go up.
So you have this game
that you have to decode that's happening.
The market has priced in all of those things.
And that's exactly what you're looking at on this chart now.
And then going forward,
when the news is not as bad as they think
you will actually see rallies.
And I'm sure all of you guys
have seen those things kind of play out?
- That's what you're anticipating is that the news
isn't gonna be as bad - Sure, for sure.
- Okay.
So Marc, how do you think inflation
is gonna affect the markets?
All the things we've talked about from rising energy prices,
interest rates, and so forth,
what do you see happening there?
- So, the companies that have pricing power
are going to at least be able to maintain their earnings,
but there are a lot of companies that just will not
be able to pass all those costs onto consumers
or to their business customers.
So those margins are gonna get pinched,
which means profits are gonna go down and,
we know that stocks follow earnings.
So if those earnings go down,
then you're likely to see those stocks continue to fall.
So, you know,
it's a little bit of a mixed bag as far as just inflation,
but I think that it's eventually gonna lead things lower,
but I will say, you know, as bearish as I've been,
I'm not overly concerned because, you know,
there are ways to play it.
So Bryan was talking about, you know, buying JP Morgan.
It's a great buying opportunity.
I actually shorted JP Morgan in my service,
Technical Pattern Profits,
and made a bunch of money for our subscribers,
getting short JP Morgan,
as things were really starting to fall apart in the market.
So, when I look at inflation,
if I look at the war in Ukraine
and all these these scary things that are out there,
and as I'm, as I said, you know, you look at the market,
it's pointing down and to the right,
it looks like it's going lower.
You know, we don't have to sit here,
and I think Bryan said, you know, that Marc's scared.
I'm not scared.
I'm actually looking forward to it because
when a market is trending hard in one direction,
there are a million opportunities.
You know, there's always a bull market
and always a bear market somewhere.
So as long as you can find those places to trade,
you're gonna make money.
And when stocks go down,
they tend to go down very, very fast.
There's an expression that
stocks take the escalator up and the elevator down.
So if you're on the right side of that down trade,
you can make a lot of money really fast.
So, looking at a possible, well not a possible,
looking at this bear market and this crashing market,
I'm excited about it because there's a lot of opportunity.
- Now, as part of this debate,
both Bryan and Marc have agreed to reveal
the number one strategy they believe
all of us should be using to make the most money
in these current market conditions.
So I wanna get to that.
First, let me ask one more question here
about some of what we've started to here with.
What's gonna happen with the war in Ukraine?
What do you both see happening?
Let's start with you, Bryan.
What do you expect from the continuation?
Let's say it continues or even escalates.
- Yeah. - What do you see happening
and how's that gonna impact the markets?
- I think a lot of it has already been priced in.
If we have an escalation of the war,
then things can get a little bit more troublesome.
However, that will lead to an opportunity
in any defense stock is now in play.
So a Northrop Grumman, a Lockheed Martin,
even a Boeing or an L3 Systems or something,
those plays will be absolutely in play if it escalates.
If there is not an escalation
then I think the market has almost kind of
got bored with it and it's just moving along.
- [Marc] Yeah, I can't believe I'm saying this,
but I agree with Bryan. (audience laughing)
- Oh, no. Mark the time.
Mark the time on this.
- Yeah. I think it's mostly priced in, I mean, you know,
God forbid there's biological warfare or threats of nuclear,
then, you know, then all bets are off as far as the market
and that's kind of the least of our concerns, but yeah,
I do think it's priced in.
And as Bryan said, defense stocks,
you know, we just shipped,
the United States just shipped
several thousand missiles to Ukraine and,
from our stockpile,
it's not like they were fresh off the line
and it's gonna take the United States
three to four years to replace these missiles.
So Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, all these companies,
which already had a pretty robust business to begin with,
now, they have an even bigger
back order from the government.
- And if there's one thing that the US government
is really, really, really, really good at,
it's defense spending. - Yeah.
- So that play will be a great one.
And for anyone, for you guys that are here
and for anyone watching at home,
one of the plays that was most successful for me
during the Ukraine crisis was DFEN.
D-F-E-N is the ticker symbol.
Now, if you look at like Lockheed Martin,
or Northrop Grumman, or Boeing or L3 Systems,
they're all 2, 3, 4, $500 stocks.
But what the DFEN does is baskets all of the top
defensive stocks together into one asset
and it's less than $20 a share.
So this is the way to own a basket
of the very best defensive stocks,
defense and aerospace in the entire world,
all for a relatively cheap and inexpensive way.
So it's a great way to be positioned for that trade
if things should escalate.
- Okay. Do you wanna say anything else?
I know that they've got some numbers here
and I believe this is how you played when the
work first game about, - Right.
- So, you wanna talk about that at all?
- Yeah, so, okay, say I'm the biggest dope in the world
and Marc is right and I'm wrong
and the markets do go down and they continue to go down.
Why I am not worried about this is because,
exactly like you said,
when markets start going down they go down fast
and traders do not trade on technicals at that point,
they trade on emotion.
And emotion, think that every decision
you made in your life,
when you made a decision when you were very emotional,
it probably wasn't the best decision.
Well, that happens on Wall Street all the time.
So in times of conflict,
in times when the markets are trading down,
people trade on emotion, the best traders trade on emotion.
I'm sure we've all done it.
I'm sure you guys all at home have done it.
So what we like to do in,
in to answer your question about Russia, Ukraine,
when that was becoming a market event
that really stressed people out,
we were able to trade assets and win out of 17,
out of 18 trades, we had a 94% win rate.
So we basically total return of 115% over 12 days
during that period of Russia, Ukraine volatility,
because people were making emotional decisions
and those were bad decisions.
And in The War Room, our trading service,
we were able to diagnose that in real time
and tell our people exactly what to do
over that time period,
to double your money as that kind of conflict
was starting to boil over.
- All right, so Marc,
with your expectation that the markets are headed lower,
what are some of the sectors that you feel
are going to perform best and worst,
and where do you see opportunity?
- So, I do think technology
is going to continue to deteriorate.
The semiconductors look terrible right now.
I think we have a chart that we can pull up.
Semiconductors just look awful and also networking stocks.
So, any company that has the word network in it,
Extreme Networks, F5 Networks,
all those companies are awful.
- Short the networkers.
If it's got network just short it?
- Pretty much.
I mean, this, these are,
this is a head and shoulders pattern,
which is one of the most bearish patterns that you can have.
It's basically what happens on a head and shoulders pattern
after a stock or index stops going up,
it makes a little peak, then a higher peak,
and then a lower peak, which is bearish,
and that lower peak is on lower volume.
It means that the buyers are drying up
and then the stock falls or the index falls.
It's extremely bearish.
It's one of the most reliable,
actually it is the most reliable chart pattern out there
and that's networking and the networking stocks
have already fallen, you can see,
from a high of about 980 to 770.
It's actually a little bit lower now,
'cause this is day or two old.
So this is a very bad looking index.
And if you see any bounce in these stocks,
and in a bear market, keep in mind,
in a bear market the rallies can be kind of vicious.
So if you see a strong rally in some of these
high flying names or formally high flying names,
I would short the heck out of them,
or at least buy some puts.
But as I said, there's always a bull market somewhere.
So right now, and going along with higher interest rates,
you've got insurance stocks doing really well
and they're in an up trend.
It's coming down a little bit from that high,
but it's still in an up trend.
And actually I just added an insurance stock
to Technical Pattern Profits portfolio just yesterday.
So even though I'm bearish on most of the market,
as long as there's a bull market somewhere
I'll play both sides.
I have no problem getting long,
as long as that stock and that index is pointing higher.
- What, you mentioned JP Morgan earlier
as one of the trades you've done recently.
What are some other trades that have worked well?
- Sure, so we shorted JP Morgan,
which worked out really well.
We shorted GXO Logistics, which is a trucking company.
So we made a bunch of money.
I think we have the slide coming up here.
I don't have the exact numbers in front of me
till the slide comes up, let's see.
All right, we're looking for it.
So GXO Logistics was a really successful one.
Intuit is one that I'm currently short.
So this is a stock in a down trend.
It came up to the top of that down trend.
We shorted it and bought puts.
And, again, this chart is day or two old.
It's actually down at 420 right now.
So it's come down even lower.
And I think it's going down to 400, maybe below that.
Also I shorted Invesco, IVZ is the ticker symbol.
And we took 100% profits on the puts there in just 20 days.
So, it's been a great time to be short and,
just grabbing those short positions
when a stock rebounds a little bit
to the top of the trend line and,
you know, you can make a really, really good profit
even though the market's going down.
And that's what's really exciting to me
is while everybody's getting killed out there
and taking a beating,
making some money for people in a bear market.
- And have these all been in your
Technical Pattern Profit service?
- Yes. Exactly.
- How about you, Bryan?
Where else, we saw some of the overall stats
of how you played the war. - Okay.
- What else have you seen on the, since you're bullish,
have you seen some upside potential?
Do you, where do you see upside?
- Yeah, I mean, there's a ton.
We discuss it in The War Room every single day,
at wake up, 30 minutes before the open,
we give an entire breakdown of here's what I'm looking at,
here's what I like, here's what I'm tracking for the day.
So you have an entire, almost like menu,
of all the stocks that we're looking at
30 minutes before they open.
And then as soon as the markets open,
if any of those particular stocks trigger,
whether up or down,
I'm gonna gonna issue a trade out to you.
So, I kind of actually do a little bit
of what you described too, Marc.
There's always gonna be a bull market,
like during the COVID crash, right?
There's two primary trades that I was playing.
I was playing Clorox on the upside,
because, you know, Clorox kills 99% of germs.
I'm like, this is the trade.
And we alerted our members to that immediately
at the very, very outset of COVID
and Clorox was one of the best.
I think it was one of the only,
it was one of only seven stocks in the entire S&P 500
that was up during that COVID period.
We were on it from the very beginning.
At the same time, there was Disney,
who like, no one's going to theme parks anymore.
ESPN is owned by Disney,
there's no sporting events anymore.
So we were, no one's going to movies anymore.
So Disney was where we were playing puts,
and we were playing calls on Clorox versus puts on Disney.
And we were making money on both of those simultaneously.
So, to kind of fast forward now to current times,
if we do enter a recession, okay,
you have plays like Dollar Tree,
or Dollar General or Walmart that are now gonna be in play
because people are gonna pull back
and they're gonna go to those dollar stores
more than they would, you know, a company like Lulu Lemon.
You're not gonna buy a $100 pair of yoga pants anymore.
You're gonna go to Target and buy a $20 pair of yoga pants.
So, there are ways to adjust
around recessionary environments.
And those are the types of things that we are decoding
and giving to our members every single day
inside The War Room.
- And are those trades generally,
what kind of duration do do those trades happen?
- So the trades can last anywhere from
one hour to three or four days.
I don't want to, I typically like to be
holding a trade from a Monday or Tuesday
to a Thursday or Friday, so that would be the perfect way.
And we would just wanna hit a 25, 30, 40% gain on that trade
every single day actually,
'cause I have multiple trades going on at once.
So I'm trying to play the long versus the short, you know,
plays that I like on the upside,
plays that I don't like on the downside.
And that's just gonna generate like
a full stable of winners on a daily basis.
- Okay, Marc in just a second,
I'd love you to talk a bit about your service,
but before we do that, Bryan, I know both of you,
we had talked about this is all sounds really good,
but is this actually working for real people?
You know, you're placing
these trades every day, - Yeah, for sure.
- Did you bring some feedback or did,
we talked about bringing some comments
from your subscribers. - Yeah.
Do you have any? - Yeah, so like during
the COVID era, the time,
we were trading, I think we made 70, 73 trades, 71,
or whatever, it was a 97% win rate.
So, we've had members who turned $150,000 account
into over 2.3 million during COVID.
So, you know, I brought it. - 150,000 Into 2.3 million?
- 2.3, yes. Confirmed.
He's like, "Here's what I did."
Clorox was part of that, Disney puts were part of that.
So, I mean, that's an extreme example obviously,
but if you're at home worried about the market going down,
here's what the point is, right?
I'm the bull of this kind of like, you know,
little big debate or whatever you want to call it.
But the big important point is,
even if I'm wrong and even if the markets do go down,
we're gonna make more money in the down time
than we are in the upside.
So it's kind of like,
no matter which direction the market's gonna go,
if you're a War Room member,
you're seeing how to trade that
and you're prospering on up or a down market.
- All right.
And you're using technical indicators?
- Yeah. It's technical.
It's formations that I like, you know,
you mentioned the head and shoulders.
I play something similar,
but I'm more on a three minute chart indicator.
So I have some formations, W formations, M formations,
and I like to play those using three minute ticks.
So I'm decoding these things live in real time.
And when these triggers are going off,
when your head and shoulders pattern
was a six month for that to play out,
some of my patterns play out
in a three or four minute timeframe.
So you're getting those like instantly as they're happening.
So I think that's kind of the difference, you know,
like I'm quicker with my technical formations.
Yours play out a little bit longer,
but I think essentially it's both technical
that we're trading on, right?
- Yeah, for sure. Absolutely.
And yeah, so just to clarify,
so when you mentioned the six month,
taking six months to play out,
we're not in a trade for six months.
I have dozens of stocks on my radar list that I'm watching,
see, you know, is this head and shoulders actually forming?
Is this trend viable or shortable?
So once we're in a trade,
we're really trying to take advantage of these trends.
And, my average holding time is 28 days,
so certainly longer than Bryan,
but it's not a six month time period, you know.
We are trying to get in and hit it,
and get out fairly quickly as well.
- All right, so what are you seeing
in your technical service?
Do you have some examples
of some of the different patterns you're using
and how they've worked?
- Sure. So I think we have some slides that we can bring up.
Yeah, so again, this is the insurance index
that I just added an insurance stock last, on Friday.
And you can see this is a perfect up channel.
And, the channel is one of my favorite things to trade
because it's so you easily visible, you know.
You can, a 10 year old can look at it and see,
"Oh, this is going steadily higher."
The highs are higher, the lows are higher
and this is something that's going higher.
So I love those channels.
What I also love.
So I try to buy those channels,
the stocks at the bottom of the channel,
but occasionally we get a stock like Baidu,
where we buy at the bottom of the channel.
And then depending on the trade,
we won't sell the minute it hits the top,
let's give it a minute and see if it can break through.
And if it breaks through that channel,
then the sky is the limit
because that resistance has been broken.
And here in Baidu, we made 487% in 13 days on a call option.
Because- - A call opt.
What kind of op?
A call option? - The call option,
Yeah, this was a while ago,
but this was not in the last couple of months
because the market was going down.
But... (audience laughing)
But you can see how powerful this pattern can be
and you don't have to always just get out
right at the top of that pattern because it goes higher.
And this was the Invesco example I gave earlier
where the opposite was a downward channel.
And this was in the last month where on April,
I think it was April 6th, we got short in the high 22s,
we got out 20 days later in the 19s.
- So, go back to that slide real quick, right?
I mean, you, with all due respect,
like any five year old with a green crayon can,
with a general knowledge of how to play connect the dots
can draw resistance on the top
and a support on the bottom. - Right?
- There's gotta be (audience chuckle)
more to it than that, right?
- I do use a technical indicator
to indicate when momentum is changing.
So, if you have a stock,
let's say that's at the top of that channel.
But my momentum indicator's pointing higher,
I'm gonna hold off.
So it kind of, the stars need to align
for me to buy or sell.
So that's why I was saying,
I generally have dozens of stocks on my radar
at any given time and, you know,
some of them are kind of ripening on the vine.
Some of them look ripe,
but everything kind of has to align for me to add a trade.
So that's why I have about one to two trades a week,
because I'm not, you know,
I'm not just buying and selling everything
that looks like a channel
or looks like a head and shoulders.
Everything kind of us to work out perfectly.
- [Bryan] I'll allow it.
- Why do you believe, Marc, that,
can you share with everyone,
why you believe technical analysis
is the most important thing to be looking at
in an environment like this
compared to a fundamental analysis?
- So, especially in short term trading and like Bryan said,
you know, he's a technical analyst too,
and he's even shorter term than I am.
You know, prices,
expectations are reflected in the stocks price.
When someone is looking at Invesco here
and it's trading at 22, you know,
you're not so much, and it's in a downward channel,
clearly the market is not thinking about valuation.
It's not thinking about it's margins
and it's balance sheet, you know.
You are seeing sellers stepping up to the plate
every time the stock rises and buyers disappearing.
And so it's, you know, very, very clear
what Wall Street is expecting to happen.
And so, all we're doing,
I think there's that expression of, you know,
if you see $20 in the corner, you go pick it up.
I think it was maybe Jim Rogers that had that expression.
That's how he invests.
He just waits until there's $20 in the corner.
That's basically what we're doing.
And, and Bryan I think, would agree,
when you see that pattern, that set up,
then you just go pick up the money.
- Our guys are picking up hundreds,
(laughs) but yes, same thing.
- All right.
So do you have any feedback from your subscribers?
Some actual concrete feedback that shows
what their experience has been like?
- Yeah, sure.
So right on this Invesco trade,
we had a reader who wrote in and said he made $50,000.
He'd invested 51,000.
So that that's, you know, that's a big chunk of change.
I don't necessarily recommend everybody
put $50,000 into every trade,
but he did make $50,000 in 20 days.
So, and as he said,
"PUTS are what's working best in this awful market."
So if you don't listen to me,
maybe you can listen to Sam G.
And we've gotten several emails as well
from other people who have done really well.
So yeah, Jim Nelson,
"The last four weeks of trading,
this is the brightest spot of all.
Thank you, Marc, for your technical skills.
You helped me make my family's retirement better."
And, you know,
an email like that is really what gets me excited.
So it's not just somebody makes a bunch of money.
I mean, Bryan and I will certainly agree.
We both wanna make a ton of money for our investors,
but I love hearing that somebody is able to sleep at night.
We help make their retirement better.
They went on a trip.
We had a subscriber a number of years ago
who took his entire family to Sicily,
which is where he was born, where his family's from,
for two weeks over Christmas.
Is a trip that generations of his family will never forget.
So like, that's the stuff that I love to see when,
in addition to, "Hey, I made a bunch of money."
So I'd love to see an email like that,
that we help make the family's retirement better.
- Yeah. - Yeah.
It is amazing.
And of course these are exceptional examples,
but it is really wonderful to see what's possible here.
What percentage of the time
do these various chart patterns play out?
Do you have any numbers on that?
'Cause that's what I'm curious about is
how often do these trades work?
- Yes, that's a great question.
So there was a study done a number of years ago
by Thomas Bulkowski, who is kind of considered the,
I don't know if king is the right word, but you know,
the ultimate expert on chart patterns
and especially the statistics behind the chart patterns.
And so he did a study.
So the bull flag pattern worked 67% of the time,
same with the bear flag pattern,
ascending channels and descending channels,
which is what I've really been
concentrating on lately in this market, 72, 73%,
and the head and shoulders, as I mentioned,
has been in the most reliable at 83%.
So when you see that head and shoulders pattern in a stock,
you certainly don't wanna be in it.
And you wanna seriously think about
getting out or shorting it,
'cause that's probably how you're gonna do really well.
- [Nate] Okay.
- So these patterns really do work.
I mean, they're and then you combine those,
the momentum indicator I work
and just increases your odds even better.
- Okay.
So, you know, short term trading,
I think we're all hearing
both of these gentlemen say that this is,
there's a big opportunity when times are volatile
to use short term trading.
Obviously not all of these trades are gonna work.
Some are gonna be losing trades,
but to have a 67% win rate up to an 83% win rate?
I mean, from my perspective,
that is a very, very strong success rate.
What do you do, Marc, last question to you
and then I wanna come to you, Bryan,
what do you do to protect the downside
on some of these trades?
- So as I was showing I try to, if I'm shorting a stock,
try to do it right at that trend line.
If I'm buying a stock, right by that support line,
so that if I'm wrong, which doesn't happen that often,
but if I'm wrong, (audience laughing)
we know quickly and we can cut our losses very short
because trading, as you know,
is all about letting your winners run
and keeping your losses short.
And so, you know, every trader,
the best traders in the world have losses.
I mean, there are some legendary traders
who only get one outta three right.
But, their winners are big enough
and their losses are small enough
that they make tons and tons of money.
So, that's what I'm trying to do is just
keep those losses nice and small
and those winners nice and big.
And it all take,
the numbers take care of themself when you do that.
- Well, and everyone equates trading, in many respects,
to like gambling in Vegas, right?
So here's some patterns,
that I'm actually gonna like support you here.
- Oh! - Like here's some patterns
that are like showing 70, 80% success rate.
Mine are showing 75% success rate too.
Vegas wants to win on like 53, 54% of their bets.
Okay?
So you have Vegas and all their exploding volcanoes
and waterfalls and lights and glitz and glamor,
their sports books, and their gambling,
they wanna take 53% of their winnings or 54,
52, 54% of the time they wanna win.
Here we are winning 75% of the time, 85%.
So when people ask me like, "Is trading gambling,"
I say absolutely not.
It's the furthest thing from trading
that you can possibly ever get.
Because when you place a trade,
you can sell as a trader,
you could sell that trade at 10% or 20% or 30%.
When you place a wager in Vegas,
you can't say all of a sudden like,
"Oh, I wanna take 20% of my money off the table right now."
Like if the roulette ball is getting close to your number,
you'd be like, "Oh, take 20%."
You can't do that. It's all or nothing in Vegas.
In trading, you could sell anytime.
It's a fundamental difference between
what we're doing and what people are trying to like,
think that this is any sort of gambling.
It's not even close.
- Yeah. That's a really good analogy.
And I'll extend it even further.
So, gambling, you know, put your money down,
you get your cards and if you win it's 'cause you got lucky.
I would say trading is more like poker
where it's very much in your control.
Certainly there can be a luck element to it.
You could be in a stock and it gets bought out
and you never saw that coming and, and you get lucky there.
But for the most part, it's in your control.
When you play poker, you get the cards and you can decide,
am I gonna play this hand.
In blackjack you can't get the cards and say,
"All right, I'm taking my money off."
So, you can look at a chart and say,
I'm not playing that hand.
Or you can get, look at the chart and say,
"Okay, now I'm going all in or "I'm increasing the bet,"
so it it's very much more in your control.
So I don't equate it to gambling at all.
And I think anybody who calls
Wall Street a casino is very misinformed.
- They're misinformed. And they're just wrong.
And do you remember the time that we played poker together?
Remember? - Yeah, yeah.
- Yeah. - How did that turn out?
(audience laughing) - I thought somebody else,
I don't remember you being the big winner, right?
- You know, the truth is that, you know, I have young kids,
so I don't do a lot of trading at this stage,
but I have done many times.
And if in my long term investments, if 75% of them work,
I'm pretty happy let alone short term trading.
So I do think that's really impressive.
So, in your service, Bryan,
one outta four is not working,
but three outta four are winning trades.
- Yeah, and three outta four have generated a 410,
410% over performance of the S&P.
It's almost 5 X-ing the market.
- Yeah. - And that's every single
trade winners and losers,
since the absolute inception of our service.
- [Nate] And the average hold is only six days?
- Yeah. Yeah.
So we are, and that includes like some trades
that I've held too long, 30, 40, 50 days.
So lot of the times I'm in and out in a week.
But average of every single trade we made is,
is 5.9 days to be able to like churn that return
over and over again, no matter if the market's up or down,
and keep in mind, that even includes the entire COVID crash,
the entire Ukraine/Russia situation, that's all baked in.
That 410% includes everything.
- So tell us, then,
you came here saying that you are a bull.
You believe the market's going up.
What do you think is the,
what is the best strategy that we should all be using
or looking at or considering to benefit?
- It's the most simple answer in the world.
The strategy is make money when markets go up,
make more money when markets go down.
Simple as that! I mean, it's real.
We don't have to really overthink this, right?
(indistinct) - I'd like you to think
a little bit more about it, market's gone down.
_ Sure, Fine.
That's my point.
Like if I'm the biggest dope, if I eat Crow and I'm wrong,
we're gonna still make more money.
And that's fine with me because we have a platform
that allows us to make quick decisions, to turn on a dime.
And if things are going down, we'll play put options,
we'll be right alongside with you.
And we'll be like, just as that elevator,
as you're describing is going down,
we'll just be like,
we call The War Room, We call it print.
Our puts are printing.
We are printing our puts today.
That means they're making money.
They're bringing back to us.
So if the market's going up awesome, we'll make money.
If the market's just cascading down, we'll make more money.
- As long as you admit that I'm right when that happens?
(chuckles)
- So what strategy do you use for
some of the bullish opportunities you're looking at,
specifically?
What's the technical strategy? What are you looking at?
- Yeah. So in The War Room, right?
If I'm looking at a technical strategy,
I would wanna look for what I call a W pattern.
So a W pattern is basically essentially
your head shoulders inverted on a three minute time scale.
So I wanna play,
when those patterns trigger quickly,
that's when I'm gonna trigger a call trade.
Now, if you flip a W upside down, it's an M.
So if an M pattern plays out,
that's a bearish trigger for me.
So if a W pattern triggers,
I'm gonna be playing a put option on that.
So what do I do?
We wake up every morning, we look at the market,
we send out a note 30 minutes before they open
to all of our War Room subscribers
and the entire community logs on
and we all discuss what the markets are doing.
Here's what I'm looking at. Here's what I like.
Here's what I don't like.
And we have all of these traders all coming together,
not to talk politics, not to talk sport, no garbage.
It's all about how we're gonna be making the most money
on that particular day.
It's the most powerful, engaging,
and just like profitable community that we've created.
And I'm super proud of it.
So, if anyone wants to be part of this community,
you get an entire setup.
And anytime those trades happen in real time,
you'll get alerts, buy and sell.
- And you're putting out how many trades a day?
- So, we're putting out multiple trades a day.
I will guarantee that we're gonna do,
I could actually guarantee you right now
that we will hit one winning trade per day
over the next 90 days.
That's how confident I am.
That if I'm right or wrong,
we can still be locking in money every single day,
one winner a day.
And, I'm actually gonna say that one winner
will actually be,
anyone can make 10 trades and then nine of 'em are losses
and one of 'em'll win, that doesn't count.
I have to maintain my accuracy rate as well.
So that's what I can say to you.
- Okay.
So, we'll come back to this in just a second,
but Marc, in the meantime,
can you make kind of the final pitch to the audience
of why, you know, your bear market case
and what you believe the best strategy they can be using is?
- Sure, so as we said,
all you have to do is look at the market,
see what's happening.
The market is tanking.
It's been tanking for several months now.
There are a lot of fundamental headwinds out there.
Some scary things, for sure,
inflation, higher interest rates,
the Fed is going to be reducing its balance sheet.
Remember, the Fed has been talking about doing this for,
I don't know how long,
and they're about to slam on the brakes
as far as both raising interest rates
and reducing its balance sheet.
That is certainly not gonna be positive
for the markets, the economy.
But really it comes down to looking at the stocks.
So, I don't, maybe a little bit different than Bryan,
when he said he was looking at Clorox during the COVID,
and if we hit a recession,
he's gonna be looking at the Walmart's
and the dollar stores,
I'm really letting the charts tell me what to do.
I'm not going in there with preconceived notions.
Now I may think, yeah,
Dollar Tree sounds like it would make sense.
Let me see what the chart does and I'll see.
And if the chart makes sense, then I'll play it.
But I'm really just letting the charts dictate to me,
which positions I'm getting in
and I'm trying to buy them at support
so that our risk is minimized
and I'm trying to short them at resistance
so that my risk is minimized.
There's a lot of upside there
and really the most important thing is minimizing that risk.
So, you know, like I said, I'm bearish
and I actually am excited about it.
I know it causes pain for a lot of people,
but for the people who can take advantage of it and trade,
they can make a lot of money in a short period of time.
And look, this bear market only lasts six months.
There's an opportunity to really
grab a lot of profits really quickly,
and then if the market bottoms,
then we can, you know, go on from there.
- Well it only took a month
for that one guy to make two million during COVID.
So that gives you a sense - Yeah, true.
- Of like, if these markets are going down that dramatically
a big one month down move could be a $2 million month.
Like, of course, you know. - And just one last thing
I wanna mention about, you know,
whether the bear market is close to being over,
just remember, kind of like I saying,
that if you're bearish,
that doesn't mean you're done selling.
So the time to buy the market is when
you really don't want to,
when it feels the most uncomfortable.
And nobody's there yet.
I mean, Bryan is telling you,
"We're only down 15% go buy it."
So we're not there yet.
So, you know, whether it's with Bryan, with me,
however you're gonna play the market,
just be ready to play the short side, buy some puts,
or be ready to short sell some stocks, because that,
I think, that you're gonna make a lot of money
in the next six months doing that.
- All right, so let's take a look at your services
and exactly what they offer.
Can you bring back up the chart for The War Room please?
So, The War Room Bryan is, as you've described,
it's a trading room, it's open every day.
Let's just kind of review.
You're saying that you put out one to three trades,
- Yep. - 10 to 15 a week.
- [Bryan] Yep.
- [Nate] And thus far since you launched it in 2019,
- Yep. - You've had 1,300
winning trades at over 75% win rate?
- [Bryan] Correct. 76,
- 76% win rate. (audience laughing)
Okay. Thank you.
And the average hold time is 5.9, not six days.
(laughing)
So, for anyone that's watching this,
for anyone that is at home thinking, you know,
"I wanna be profitable during this upcoming, you know,
through this volatility,"
- Yeah. - "I believe in what
you're saying," - Yeah.
- [Nate] They're agreeing with your case.
Let's make an offer so that we can invite them in
if they want your help.
- [Bryan] So the one winner a day that wasn't good enough?
- [Nate] No, not that, not that.
I mean to actually enter The War Room.
- Oh. - I know The War Room
is normally, I think it's 7,500 a year,
right? - Correct, yes, yes.
- The lowest price I've ever seen you offer this product
is actually here at the conference like this,
where people come and they join us in person.
And I believe the price here is 2,200
for in person attendees. - Yep.
- Would you be willing to extend that same offer
of 2,200 to anyone here and anyone
that's watching at home just for this debate?
- Okay. You wanna put me on the spot?
Okay. It's live TV, right?
- No pressure. - No pressure, right.
If that's what it's gonna take to get someone
into our community to see how we trade,
to protect themselves in any sort of market environment
up or down, then, yes sure.
I could do that for you if that, but, but,
for everyone at home, and if you pay,
you probably don't even have the technology
to make a price change, so fine, Nate,
I could totally do it for you.
But, my condition was is that this price does not last
a month or two month or three months
or four months. - Yeah, just for this debate.
- If it's for this debate
and that if that's what it's gonna be,
then yes. - Okay.
- I will do it for everyone watching.
- So that sounds like a good offer.
Now Marc, you know what, actually?
Actually.
- Uh-oh.
- We've been sitting here talking about inflation
this whole time and we're all paying more for everything.
I think I'm gonna ask you to go lower.
Should we try to get him a little lower?
- Yeah! (applause)
- I have, you know, we've known each other a long time
and I know you do, the 2,200 is the lowest price
I've ever seen you offer.
But just for this event,
I really do feel like we should try to do something
remarkable here because you know,
for people that can benefit from your service,
let's try to make 'em an offer that they can't refuse.
Will you go down to 1,995 below the 2,000 mark
just for this time for this one offer?
Make something unique that we can't get
(indistinct) - No, more!
Pay more! - She thinks it's worth
way more than that, right?
The crowd is getting restless already, right?
I mean, I've talked to people this entire conference
saying that they made $5,000 on the first trade they made,
They paid for year's worth of service after one trade.
So- - I know that.
And I also know how much time you spend
focused on executing on these trades
and delivering in The War Room - Yeah.
- But I wanted challenge you to do something special.
- All right. - D'you think-
- [Bryan] All right, let's go bring it on.
- It's for this one event. So you'll do it?
- No! (laughing)
- Wait, who says "Yes"?
- Yeah. (cheering)
Okay.
If it's a limited, if it's limited,
if it's a limited time, then fine, yes.
Just for this event. - Okay.
- Let's- - Make a number.
Limited number. - Oh, right.
Okay. - All right.
So 1,995, agreed?
- Agreed.
- Okay, great.
Marc. - Wow.
- Can we switch to Marc's service?
All right, so Marc,
the service you've been describing,
all the various patterns
is the Technical Pattern Profit service.
It uses technical analysis
and the various ascending channels, descending channels,
head and shoulders patterns,
inverted head and shoulders.
And then the bull and bear flag.
You're putting out one to two trades per week.
And how long are you holding them?
- [Marc] So it's an average of 28 days.
Although recently,
as things have really kind of deteriorated,
those short trades that we've taken profits on
have been shorter.
They've been about two to three week duration.
- [Nate] Okay.
So two to three week duration and you've closed,
It looks like 18 wins in 17 weeks so far this year.
- [Marc] Right. So more than one a week.
- [Nate] Okay. So what kind of offer can we make?
Are you willing, normally I think your service
is a little bit more expensive than The War Room
on the website. - That's right.
- Can we- - Worth it, that's why.
(audience laughing)
- [Bryan] He hasn't got to the price decrease yet.
Just wait.
- Well, let me ask you.
will you match Bryan's price of 1,995?
- Oh.
- Well, yeah.
Now that you've put me out the spot, of course I will.
- No pressure come on! (applause)
- But for the same reason that Bryan is doing it too,
because, I feel so strongly that we are in a bear market
that's only going to get worse.
So I do wanna help as many people as I can
make those profits quickly
while the market is falling apart.
So absolutely. - Okay.
So for those of you that are Chairman Circle members,
you get Marc's service, this is a,
this is the lowest price I've ever seen
Bryan offer his service so, well done.
And for those of you that wanted to join.
Now let's talk about the actual service itself.
If people get into the service,
what kind of guarantee can you make, let's start with you,
Bryan, you've already made it.
So you're saying- - A winner a day.
Winner a day with a 76% accuracy rate.
- One winner a day.
And you're gonna maintain that 76% accuracy.
- Absolutely. Like fully confident that that can happen.
Every War Room member in this room,
or even potentially watching livestream,
they could support the fact that that is a guarantee
that I will stand by any day of the week.
- [Man] Three winners a day.
- Okay. - Three winners a day
he says. - Three winners a day?
This is a War Room member here. All right.
Yeah. That, I think, that's more than a fair guarantee.
That is, that's impressive.
So, Marc, what are you willing to guarantee
for anyone who joins your service?
What commitments or reassurances can you make?
- Okay, so I'm gonna guarantee
that we're going to beat the S&P by eight times.
So if the market goes up 10%- - Sorry, did you say
eight times? - Eight times, yeah.
(applause) - Okay.
- The market goes up 10%, we'll be up 80.
If the market goes up 20%, we'll be up 160.
But if I'm right,
which I know I am and the market falls apart,
then make that inverse.
So if the market falls another 10% we'll be up 80%.
If the market falls another 25%,
that means we'd be up 200%.
- Sorry.
You're saying if the market falls 10%,
you're gonna be up an average of 80%?
- Yeah.
Because we've been shorting the heck outta the market.
And I expect to continue doing that.
- Okay.
Who would be happy with 80% return
if the market dropped 10%?
(applause)
Wow. Okay.
All right. So one a day and 8 X return.
All right.
So, if we could, to the technology team in the back, Miles?
Could you please adjust the pricing on the order form
to reflect these comments that have been made here?
All right. Good.
- [Bryan] He gave you a very quizzical look like, "What"?
- Thumbs up. All right.
I actually do have one other thing
that I haven't told either of you about.
- Look at this guy!
But wait, there's more! - But wait, there's more.
But actually, no,
I just wanted to put you guys on the spot.
And so this is really fun for me.
So there's actually one other thing that
I did talk to your teams before,
and I thought would be a really nice way to end a debate.
And it's a wager.
I'd like-
- Well done. - Okay.
- Bring it. - Yeah.
- I would like to challenge you both to a wager.
The wager is this.
Bryan, if anyone signs up for your service
at the discounted rate of 1,995
and you don't deliver on the guarantee.
- Yeah. - You are going to pay
for them to have a year of Marc's service
out of your own pocket. - Simple!
(audience comments) That's the easiest
yes in the world, right?
Like, of course that's not gonna happen.
So I'll guarantee that a million times over. Yeah!
- Really, right? - Totally, yes!
- All right. - Absolutely.
- All right, Marc. - Mm-hmm.
- Same thing to you then.
Will you guarantee that if someone joins your service
and you do not hit the guarantee,
you will buy them a year of War Room?
- Absolutely.
And I'm not even gonna put that money
to the side in escrow or anything.
(laughing)
So. Absolutely.
- This is where the bravado comes in
and it (indistinct) like. - It's gonna be great.
- Alright, well, listen,
I think you've both heard their debates.
They actually agree on more than I expected.
Certainly at least when it comes to the way to play this,
but I think we've made some,
I think you've both made some very good arguments.
You've made some very good points
and you've both made a case for
why technical analysis in its various forms
is really the place to be and the place to focus right now.
So let's recap.
We've got the two offers.
We've got the pricing of 1,995,
we've got the guarantees that they mentioned.
We've got the wager,
which means they're gonna buy a year
of the other service on your behalf
if you take them up on it.
For anyone that's watching at home, anyone here,
if you'd like to get started,
I think for those of you at home, there's a button below.
You can click it and you'll bring up an order form.
We're gonna continue actually with a Q&A,
some of you submitted questions.
So we're gonna keep going
and we'll keep getting some more additional thoughts,
but go ahead and click the button if you're watching at home
it's gonna bring up a separate window
and you can feel free to get started.
For anyone here,
I think someone was upset about the price here,
anyone that signed up and paid a slightly higher price.
Now that Bryan's come down, we can adjust that too.
Go talk to our teams in the back.
(applause)
And I'll just say one thing on a personal note.
So I have known, as I said in the beginning,
I've known both of these guys for over 10 years.
Marc is not only one of the
most effective and successful traders.
I follow his work myself.
I watch it very closely for my own thinking on investments,
but he is also one of the people that cares
the most deeply about his subscribers.
And for those of you that know him, you know that.
When he wakes up and when he puts out a trade,
he is there with you up here and here.
And he's really following that trade closely
all the way through to the end.
And many people don't know,
but he actually has a certification,
a Chartered Market Technician certification,
which is extremely rare.
It's a certification that applies to technical analysis.
And I believe only like 5,000 people in the world
have this designation.
So when it comes to technical analysis, he knows his stuff.
And then Bryan,
I'll just say The War Room's been around since 2019, right?
- Yep.
- You know, I've observed The War Room and I enjoy,
I have it open most days and I watch the conversations,
and it's not only the trades.
It's really the community that the service provides.
There's so many new traders that come into The War Room
and they're just having conversation.
They're learning out loud.
And both, the members who have been there a while
and have learned more, they're answering questions,
they're going back and forth.
But also, every time you put out a trade,
there's a lot of discussion around the trade.
- Yeah. - "When did you get in?"
"What price did you pay?"
And then everybody talks about when they got out,
what mistakes they made.
So there's a lot of learning.
And I'll just say, the one anecdote I always remember,
I think it was like last Thanksgiving.
- Okay. - You were closing
for a long weekend, I think maybe four or five days.
And there was a very solemn tone in The War Room
because there's a really connected community
and people were gonna not be
engaged in The War Room for a matter of days.
And so, I think there's something really valuable there.
The other thing I'll mention is that
in talking to some of you in conferences like this,
who are part of The War Room,
I know some of you only trade like one day a week
because that's the day that's most convenient.
So you don't need to be in this War Room all the time.
What interesting about it, and innovative about it,
is that it's there when the markets are open,
whenever you wanna go there.
But you can go there an hour in the morning
and you can place a trade and then go about your day.
Or you can go in one day a week
or you can go in every day.
And a lot of people do 'cause they really enjoy
the community and the learning.
So anyway, both of you, I have a lot of admiration for you.
Thank you so much for a great debate.
And now let's get to some Q&A if we could?
Do we have some questions? Rachel, here she is.
- Have we looked at these questions beforehand?
- We have. - Okay.
- Well I haven't, Rachel has.
- [Rachel] Are you taking more questions?
- Yeah, we may take some more questions.
So let's start with these.
So the question is,
"Using your respective strategies,
what's the one opportunity you're most excited about today?
Sectors and specific companies."
So, Marc, do you wanna take that first?
- So from a trading perspective.
- [Bryan] You think about it, there's two,
can I just jump in? - Sure, go ahead.
- There's two, who wrote that question, by the way?
- It's anonymous. - No name.
Anonymous question writer who's watching right now.
I think there's two opportunities to look at
in terms of dip buys.
Now we all know that growth stocks have just gotten crushed.
So if there's two dip buys to consider, it's Roblox, RBLX,
and ISRG, which is Intuitive Surgical.
Those two, I think are worth buying,
and you're gonna have to get in.
I can't get into like the explanation
it's gonna take too much time.
I write about it in The War Room.
They can come and check out why,
but those are two opportunities
that if anyone wants to think themselves,
"What stocks should I be looking at on this big dip?"
It's those two. - Okay.
- So from a trading perspective,
it's a little bit difficult to answer that
because as I said, I have these stocks that are, you know,
kind of ripening on the vine
and I'm certainly not gonna recommend a stock before
I feel like it's ready to go.
On the long side, I did recommend Chubb, CB yesterday.
As I said,
those insurance stocks look very, very strong.
And even from a fundamental perspective,
as interest rates rise, insurance companies do well,
but from a trading perspective, I just recommended Chubb.
So that's the most recent recommendation.
- I love that you both have a strong conviction
about where you think the market's headed,
but you're looking and actively recommending
opportunities going the other way.
All right, look, next question is,
"How do we best hedge against inflation
in light of frequent swings in the market?"
Bryan. - Okay.
So an inflation hedge could be pivoting
to some of the stock that I talked about.
Companies who can overcome the fact that there is inflation.
There's a Kimberly Clark just the other day, right?
Blasted $10 higher because they're an inflation hedge.
You're not gonna stop buying toilet paper
because it's 15 cents more, right?
Or maybe you might buy the one ply or something,
but like, I don't know, right? (audience laughing)
But, there's stocks that you can look at
that are inflation hedges and we discuss this type of stuff
every single day inside The War Room, we all chime in.
So that would be one way.
Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Target, Walmart.
Those are great ways to take inflationary pressures
and account for that, people's changing buying behavior.
Again, we go, we talk about this stuff all the.
So, whoever's writing those questions,
you would love the discussion every single day
that we have inside The War Room.
So we could talk about that more on a day to day basis.
- Okay. - And for the record
I go with the premium Charmin, so.
- Nice, nice. Phew.
- So dividend stocks are a great way to play it.
You know, the companies that are raising
their dividends every year,
that way you're increasing your buying power.
But not only that,
value stocks have been outperforming recently.
It had been 10, 12 years of growth stocks outperforming
and now we have value stocks.
Many value stocks are dividend stocks.
So in a bear market, if you're getting 3, 4, 5% a year
in dividends that helps buffer
a little bit of that bear market,
helps keep up with inflation.
So I think these stocks are gonna do
really well going forward.
- Okay. All right, next question.
"Do you think we'll see a positive reaction in the market
if the House/Senate flip?"
Marc, why don't you start with that?
- A positive reaction? - Can you repeat the question?
- Yep. Sorry.
"Do you think we'll see a positive reaction in the market
if the House and Senate flip/"
- I would say maybe a very short term positive reaction
because I think most people do think
it's going to flip already,
and we're certainly not seeing
anything positive in the markets now.
So, you know, maybe on election day or for a few days later,
if it flips, we get a little bit of a rally,
and who knows, we could be out of the bear market by then,
and that's six months from now.
But, if we are still in a bear market
and House incentive flipped,
the best I think you could hope for is a short term.
That's not gonna be what changes things for the market,
because the market's already looking at that.
- Yeah. I'd agree.
It might be like a one day event.
And then like the next day,
like there are be of earnings
and that will be like focus their attention on that.
But typically speaking on Wall Street,
the more gridlock you have, the better,
if the market's like that.
So, if we could somehow just,
you know, find gridlock and that makes Wall Street happy.
But if there are, you know, major flips or whatever,
it'll happen anyway. - And actually historically
the market does perform best with a Democratic president
and a Republican controlled legislature.
- Yeah.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Let's go to the next question, which is,
"How much can one be adding to a portfolio
to average cost down?
At what point do you stop and wait for a market reversal?"
- [Bryan] Say that again, re.
- "How much can one and be adding to a portfolio
to average cost down.
And at what point do you stop
and wait for a market reversal?"
So, when dollar cost averaging,
how should one approach that?
- [Bryan] Okay.
D'you wanna be on it, or? - I would say, you know,
you wanna do it systematically, as Bryan was saying,
you know, many people trade or invest based on emotion.
And when the market's going down,
that is the hardest time to put money to work.
And you can say,
"Oh, I'm looking forward to buying the dip."
But as things start falling apart,
it's really, really hard to do that.
I'm sure everybody who's ever put money to work knows that.
It's really difficult to do.
So I would try to have something, some kind of, you know,
system or some kind of discipline set
so if you know that you have X amount of dollars
that you wanna put to work over a certain amount of time,
just do it every month or every quarter or whatever it is.
Just make it disciplined.
Kind of forget about what the market is doing,
because if the market really is falling apart
and it's in really bad shape
and that's the best time to do it,
you're not gonna do it.
You're gonna probably wait for it to go higher.
I mean, every investor makes that mistake.
So it's tough to do.
So just stay disciplined, have a system.
- Yeah, and the easiest advice
that I don't know why nobody does this, right?
If you have a position and that position goes up 25%,
you sell half.
You take your money off the table
and you still have half of your position
in that for more gains.
It goes up 50 to 100%,
sell another half of your remaining half.
So you're taking money off the table while you're still,
albeit reducing your position size,
you're still in that trade.
And then if at any time that 25% or 50
goes down to a 15% gain, you sell it out.
You take your money, that's it, trade over. Right?
Everyone is asking me, "Should I sell, should I buy?"
The answer is always,
if you have that question, sell half.
You can never go wrong with the sell half approach.
I've seen it so many times,
you have the angel and the devil on each shoulder, like,
"Sell it now, it's gonna go to zero."
Or, "It's gonna go to 100!"
Whenever you find yourself in that situation,
selling half is always the answer.
- But just to be clear,
we're specifically talking about
short term trades there, right?
- Oh no. So for short term trades, right?
Like, if I'm in a trade,
it goes down and I still like the formation.
Sometimes what you have is like a landmine.
You step on a landmine,
like some news comes out, you didn't expect it.
If I still like the trade out,
I would add to it maybe at a
30 or 50% draw down to where I am.
Then if that trade does not go back up,
then I put a stop limit on it at that time.
That's maybe like 50% below that.
And if that triggers trade over, done, I was wrong. Right?
That happens about two outta 10 times.
- But you're not suggesting that,
or are you suggesting that when someone buys a stock
and they're holding it bullish?
- Well, I don't- - You sell half and then?
- Yeah. So I gave two answers.
I gave the answer if they're talking about a stock play
versus the sell at 25, 50, 100.
Or if it's an option trade,
I'll add to it one time and then put a stop limit.
And then if that triggers then I'm out.
- Okay. - So it's a different answer
depending on if it's an option play or a stock play.
- Okay, so rather than having a trailing stop,
you do think that it's good to take money off the table?
- For sure. - Okay.
- All right. Couple more.
"How much of our current problem and..."
- That's not like specific at all.
How much of the current problem right now?
- "How much of our current problem and future restoration
is due to politics versus government inaction?"
- Have at it. - Erm...
I think- (audience laughing)
I think it's very, very easy to blame government
and certainly government has some impact
on the economy and the markets.
But if you look back over time, over the decades,
markets go up over the long term, no matter who's in office,
no matter what boneheaded legislation is passed or repealed.
So, I really don't worry too much about politics
for the overall market.
I know things kind of seem dire for some people right now.
And, it's just,
politics have just been a clown show for
a couple of decades, well most of my adult life.
But, markets long since I've been an adult
have been really strong.
So I don't worry too much about politics and all that.
I try not to pay too close attention to it.
It's too easy to get wrapped up and emotional,
and then you're not gonna make the right investments.
- What he said. - He said, all right.
All right. I think that's a good place to end it.
Thank you both so much for a great debate.
(applause)
And thank you all. For joining.